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Sunday, March 30, 2014

Irrationality

Irrationality is thinking, acting, behaving or talking without inclusion of rationality.

Rationality is the quality or state of being reasonable, based on facts or reason. We evaluate each and every possible steps, cost and benefits from doing something or not doing that activity. Come up with proper reason and select or avoid decision.

So irrationality doesn’t involve rationality. As tradition economic believes that people always behave rationally in every situation. But is it really happen????

Ex:-

You are roaming at forest and lion comes and stand in front of you. At that time what will you do?

Do you think about all options, cost and benefits? What’s the cost of running? What’s the benefit of running?





NO

We just start running as fast as we can.

Thus, at that time our emotion replace on our thinking system and order to run as fast as you can.     
So Irrationality is about the forces that drive our behavior that can be economic forces, social forces.

As when we come to the policies, we just can’t consider only standard economy. We think about society’s care and take a broader picture, broader perspective that just not included only rational. We also have to include what we know about human nature.

We had seen stocks bubbles (Sub-Prime crisis, IT bubble, etc.), people over extending limits of credit cards, taking mortgages, etc. in which where we can see the rationality???

Rationality says that people are strong enough to calculate everything, consider all options then make decision but in real world people are confused, have an emotions, not every time thinking about future, fall in love and so on.    

So that people behave irrationally most of the time which not included under standard economic and pre-assume that people behave rationally.

We rely on contextual information to make all sorts of judgments and decisions. Illusion under us is that we know the answer, we know the right thing to do. But in fact we are wrong. That is just a mental, visual illusion many a time which shape our decision and judgments.

Ex:-
See the below picture…… at top what color is it look like????? 



Your answer is its look like brown.
Now, at the bottom one what color is it look like????



Your answer is its look like orange.
You can’t see both the color as an identical.
Let’s see now….. Cover all side and what both color is it look like???? Is it identical????


Now, our answer is yes both the colors are identical.

It is a visual illusion which drives our decision of those both colors are not an identical.
But is it really????

No, In fact those both colors are identical. Thus, illusion which drives our decision.

Many times we took decisions which are driven by some of the forces and those are not be a rational. We are human and we makes some mistakes repeatedly again and again but benefit of being the human is that we can identifies our mistakes and can take steps for improvement.


See the above video and get more insights.....





Friday, January 3, 2014

VINATI ORGANICS LTD.

VINATI ORGANICS LTD.
Vinati Organics Ltd. Was established in 1989 and it is a specialty chemical manufacturing company. The company started operations in its first plant in Mahad in 1992, with focus on Isobutyl Benzene (IBB), and then in 2002, it started production in its second plant in LoteParshuram, producing 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane Sulphonic acid. Company focused on the research led conversion of generic raw materials into value-added niche specialty chemicals.

Products of Company includeIsobutyl Benzene (IBB), 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane Sulphonicacid (ATBS), Isobutylene (IB), N-Tertiary Butyl Acrylamide (TBA), N-Tertiary Octyl Acrylamide (TOA) and Di Acetone Acrylamide (DAAM).

Major revenue generation products are Isobutyl Benzene (IBB), 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane Sulphonic acid (ATBS). From which 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane Sulphonic acid - several applications in oil-field recovery, water treatment, acrylic fibre manufacturing, adhesives, personal care products, medical hydrogel, mining industry, coatings and as dispersing and flocculating agents.

Isobutyl Benzene (IBB) -several applications in basic raw material for manufacturing Ibuprofen, an Anti-inflammatory analgesic bulk drug, Perfume industry.

Isobutylene (IB)- several applications in Agro based chemicals, food additives, anti-oxidants.


*Kindly click on above image file for read it enlarge.


Investment Rationale

Ø Growth in Chemical Industry:The global chemical industry historically concentrated in three regions (North America, Western Europe and Japan).  But now, Europe's share of the global production of chemical products declined from 31% to around 27%, while Asia's rose from 13% to 23%.
Ø Current size of approximately $108 billion and the Indian chemical industry is of 3%of the global chemical industry and it is estimating $290 billion till 2017E.(Source: Indiamart news, January, 2013)

Ø Wide business area & Product Range:Products of Company include Isobutyl Benzene (IBB), 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane Sulphonic acid (ATBS), Isobutylene (IB), N-Tertiary Butyl Acrylamide (TBA), N-Tertiary Octyl Acrylamide (TOA) and Di Acetone Acrylamide (DAAM).
Ø Company is the world's largest manufacturer of Isobutylbenzene (IBB, market share 60% and 2-Acrylamido 2-methylpropanesulfonic Acid (ATBS, market share 40%). ATBS contributed 41%, IBB contributed 43% and IB contributed 10% to the revenue of company in FY13.
Ø Only two competitors for the product ATBS, one in US and one in Japan and no manufacturer in India. For, IBB Company is largest manufacturer in world and only one competitor in India that is IOL Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
Ø Company started manufacturing TBA-similar to ATBS product and already capture 50% of global market share.
Ø Company has established plant for product DAAM but still manufacturing is not started. Company doing business development activity for DAAM so that can be start manufacturing it.
Ø Company generated 69% of its revenue from exports in FY13.

Ø Clients: Company has big MNCs as clients, some of are Dow Chemicals, Akzo Nobel, Asian Paints, BASF, NALCO, SNF, Perrigo, Clariant, Chemtall and ShasunChemicals etc. 30+ customers retained by the Company in the last five years and in FY13 company earned 80% of revenue from clients which are stable and relationship with them of 5 years or more.

Ø Threat to entry: Technology which is using by the company is not easily available or easily replicable. Company has done technical partnerships with global players- Institute Francaisdu Petrole (France), Saipem (Italy) and National player- National Chemical Laboratories (India).

Ø Company has achieved a high purity standard in ATBS product, a purity tolerance of 0.5% as against a global tolerance level of 3%. IBB product achieved purity standard of 99.7% which is highest in world. Same with other products- IB achieved 99.85% purity and in HP-MTBE product achieved 99.95% purity which are the highest in the world.

Ø Integration: company has implemented integrated model in which products basket has been structured as inter-consumption. So that products either consumed within company for manufacturing products or marketed to customers.

Ø Strong Performance:From 16 years, company has generated positive cash flow from operating activities. Company has recorded CAGR Net Sales and Net Profit of 32.06% and 76.81% respectively in last 10 years. Average 5 years ROE (%) of company is 40.70%.

Risks
  •          Company have wide product portfolio which gives a strong healthy position but if slowdown in Paint, Oil recovery, water treatment & personal care products then it affect adversely to the profitability of the company.
  •  European weak growth is affecting demand for ATBS so it shrinking profit margin of company.
Outlook

  •     Company is largest manufacturer in ATBS, IBB products and seeing 25%-30% growth in both this products, also company doing capex for expansion purpose and estimating Rs.1000 crore revenue after completion of projects. As per expectation, projects will be complete till FY15-FY16, and also company has 2-3 products in pipeline. 
  •      Currently company trading at TTM PE of 14.27x and TTM EPS of Rs.14.02, and it’s expected that TTM PE of 17.35x and TTM EPS of Rs.15 so that upside in this stock can be Rs.260-Rs.300 so accumulate till Rs.170 for the horizon of 12-15 months.



Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Vinati Organic Ltd.(BSE: 524200)

BUY Vinati Organic Ltd.(BSE: 524200) at every decline till 160 with target of 300, Horizon of 12-18 months.

Thursday, November 28, 2013

FIEM Full Profit Booking

Hello Investors,

I advised  to Booked Partial Profit in "FIEM INDUSTRIES LTD." on 22th Nov,2013 on the Price of Rs.270.

Now, I recommending to Investors for booking full profit between Price of Rs.285-295, with appreciation of  39%-44% from the recommending price.

Enjoy Investment.
ALL THE BEST.....



Friday, November 22, 2013

Partial (50%) Profit Booking- FIEM INDUSTRIES LTD.

Hello Investors,

I recommended "FIEM INDUSTRIES LTD."  on 24th, October, 2013 at Price of Rs. 205, which hit 1st target of Rs.270.


Now, Waiting for further upside of Rs.285-300.

But at CMP of Rs.270, we booked partial (50%) profit.
Company had posted good result also in Q2FY14.

Net Profit of Rs.9.08 Crore in Q2FY14 v/s Net Profit of Rs. 6.26 Crore in Q2FY13. (45% increased in profit) (Y-o-Y).






Enjoy Investing.

ALL THE BEST.

Thursday, October 24, 2013

FIEM INDUSTRIES LTD.


FIEM INDUSTRIES LTD. (BSE CODE:- 532768, NSE CODE:- FIEMIND)




FIEM INDUSTRIES LTD. (BSE CODE:- 532768, NSE CODE:- FIEMIND)
Buy at CMP with Accumulation.
Downside in this stock = 195
Target = 275-300
Time Horizon = 12-18 Months

Detail Report will be later on.

At the level of 20000+ SENSEX some of the stocks which are still not taken part in this bulls phase so that we should identify those stocks and make our investment in those stocks.

HAPPY INVESTING.
ENJOY MARKET MOVES.

Friday, October 11, 2013

INFOSYS Q2FY14

Infosys- Net profit of Rs 2407 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2013 as compared to Rs 2369 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2012(Y-o-Y). And also Revises FY14 guidance to 9-10% from 6-10%.

For Details:-
INFY Q2FY14