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Monday, April 21, 2014

WONDERLA HOLIDAYS IPO: SUBSCRIBE



The company has an established presence in South, which will be expanded further in the south region. Company planning to enter Chennai after Hyderabad. Besides this its has many advantages like near to debt-free company, strong and experienced management, strong positioned for amusement parks, robust financial performance, in-house manufacturing facility, etc. At the price band of Rs.115-125, the company is quoted at 14.38x and 15.63x on its FY13 EPS of Rs.8.00.


I, Jimit R. Zaveri recommend investors to “SUBSCRIBE” the Wonderla Holidays Ltd IPO considering it’s strong and experienced management, strong positioned for amusement parks, robust financial performance, in-house manufacturing facility at Wonderla Kochi and long term gorwth opportunity in the amusement parks industries on the back of spending for leisure activities and for amusement parks by people in India.

Wonderla Holidays IPO: SUBSCRIBE



WonderLa’s FY13 EPS is about Rs. 8 and at Rs. 125, the PE of 15.63x which is looking attractive at issue price band. One can apply in the issue based on strong fundamental such as Operational experience in the amusement park industry, In-house manufacturing facility at Wonderla Kochi, High profit margins, High safety and hygiene standards, Experienced promoters, management and qualified staff, Entry Barriers and Constantly innovate new attractions at our amusement parks.
The company’s Promoter, Kochouseph Chittilappilly in the year 1996 incorporated V-Guard Industries. Also key management personnel information George Joseph (Chairman, Non-Executive Director (Independent)) serving as director at Muthoot Finance Limited, Ramachandran Panjan Moothedath (Non-Executive Director (Independent)) serving as director at Jyothy Laboratories Limited, Jyothy Consumer Products Limited.
On above strong investment rationale and reasonable valuations, I recommending investors to “SUBSCRIBE” Wonderla Holidays-IPO.   
Detail report will be soon updated.
Visit For Further Details,

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

INFOSYS Q4FY14 Result Update


Infosys Ltd.- Q4FY14 Consolidated- Net Profit Rs.2992 cr in Q4FY14 v/s Rs.2394 cr in Q4FY13., up by 24.98% (Y-o-Y).
Revenue- Rs. 12875cr in Q4FY14 v/s Rs.10454 cr in Q4FY13, up by 23.16% (Y-o-Y).

Net Profit- Rs.2992cr in Q4FY14 v/s Rs.2875cr in Q3FY14, up by 4.07%. (Q-o-Q).
Revenue- Rs.12875cr in Q4FY14 v/s Rs.13026cr in Q3FY14,Down by -1.16% (Q-o-Q).

Infosys declares final dividend of Rs 43/share.
Guidence- FY15 revenue expected to grow by 7%-9% in US$ terms.


INFOSYS Q4FY14

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Herd Behaviour

Herd Behaviour is involves people using the actions of others as a guide to sensible behaviour, instead of independently seeking out high-quality information about the likely outcomes of these actions.

Here, people not take their independent decision, they see, observe others decisions and driven by those decisions. They are not going to evaluate other’s decision before using it as benchmark, just follow other’s decision blindly.

This kind of mentality originally seen in animals as they follow groups and roaming under the group. Same as humans follow their group and follow decisions of group.



















Stock market bubbles, 2008 global crisis, and so on are the examples of herd mentality.



One real Example of Indian Stock Market-

ASTRAZENECA PHARMA INDIA LTD.

BSE Code
506820
NSE Code
ASTRAZEN
Sector
Pharmaceuticals
52 week high/low (Rs.)
1285.00/595.00
No. of shares (Cr)
25
Latest Book Value(Rs)
40.73
P/BV (x)
27.58
Beta
0.24
TTM PE (x)
0.00
TTM EPS (Rs.)
-6.61
Latest Dividend (Rs.)
3.50


03 Mar 2014- AstraZeneca Pharma India Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors (Board) of AstraZeneca Pharma India Limited (Company) have, on March 01, 2014, received by email a scanned copy of the letter from AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals AB (AZP AB) Sweden, promoter of the Company, proposing to make a voluntary delisting offer (the Delisting Proposal) to the public shareholders of the Company in accordance with the Securities and Exchange Board of India.

After above announcement price shoots up like anything, as people believe that delist price can be Rs. 1400+ and that we can experiencing in price.




18 Mar 2014- AstraZeneca Pharma India Ltd has informed BSE that, pursuant to and in accordance with Regulation 8(1)(a) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Delisting of Equity Shares) Regulations, 2009, the delisting proposal received from AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals AB, Sweden, the promoter of the Company, vide their letter dated March 01, 2014, was considered and approved by the Board of the Company at its meeting held on March 15, 2014.

This shows behavior of people that reflecting into the price of the stock and drive price to upward direction. As announcement of delisting happened volume in particular stock also shoots up.



Irrationality

Irrationality is thinking, acting, behaving or talking without inclusion of rationality.

Rationality is the quality or state of being reasonable, based on facts or reason. We evaluate each and every possible steps, cost and benefits from doing something or not doing that activity. Come up with proper reason and select or avoid decision.

So irrationality doesn’t involve rationality. As tradition economic believes that people always behave rationally in every situation. But is it really happen????

Ex:-

You are roaming at forest and lion comes and stand in front of you. At that time what will you do?

Do you think about all options, cost and benefits? What’s the cost of running? What’s the benefit of running?





NO

We just start running as fast as we can.

Thus, at that time our emotion replace on our thinking system and order to run as fast as you can.     
So Irrationality is about the forces that drive our behavior that can be economic forces, social forces.

As when we come to the policies, we just can’t consider only standard economy. We think about society’s care and take a broader picture, broader perspective that just not included only rational. We also have to include what we know about human nature.

We had seen stocks bubbles (Sub-Prime crisis, IT bubble, etc.), people over extending limits of credit cards, taking mortgages, etc. in which where we can see the rationality???

Rationality says that people are strong enough to calculate everything, consider all options then make decision but in real world people are confused, have an emotions, not every time thinking about future, fall in love and so on.    

So that people behave irrationally most of the time which not included under standard economic and pre-assume that people behave rationally.

We rely on contextual information to make all sorts of judgments and decisions. Illusion under us is that we know the answer, we know the right thing to do. But in fact we are wrong. That is just a mental, visual illusion many a time which shape our decision and judgments.

Ex:-
See the below picture…… at top what color is it look like????? 



Your answer is its look like brown.
Now, at the bottom one what color is it look like????



Your answer is its look like orange.
You can’t see both the color as an identical.
Let’s see now….. Cover all side and what both color is it look like???? Is it identical????


Now, our answer is yes both the colors are identical.

It is a visual illusion which drives our decision of those both colors are not an identical.
But is it really????

No, In fact those both colors are identical. Thus, illusion which drives our decision.

Many times we took decisions which are driven by some of the forces and those are not be a rational. We are human and we makes some mistakes repeatedly again and again but benefit of being the human is that we can identifies our mistakes and can take steps for improvement.


See the above video and get more insights.....





Friday, January 3, 2014

VINATI ORGANICS LTD.

VINATI ORGANICS LTD.
Vinati Organics Ltd. Was established in 1989 and it is a specialty chemical manufacturing company. The company started operations in its first plant in Mahad in 1992, with focus on Isobutyl Benzene (IBB), and then in 2002, it started production in its second plant in LoteParshuram, producing 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane Sulphonic acid. Company focused on the research led conversion of generic raw materials into value-added niche specialty chemicals.

Products of Company includeIsobutyl Benzene (IBB), 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane Sulphonicacid (ATBS), Isobutylene (IB), N-Tertiary Butyl Acrylamide (TBA), N-Tertiary Octyl Acrylamide (TOA) and Di Acetone Acrylamide (DAAM).

Major revenue generation products are Isobutyl Benzene (IBB), 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane Sulphonic acid (ATBS). From which 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane Sulphonic acid - several applications in oil-field recovery, water treatment, acrylic fibre manufacturing, adhesives, personal care products, medical hydrogel, mining industry, coatings and as dispersing and flocculating agents.

Isobutyl Benzene (IBB) -several applications in basic raw material for manufacturing Ibuprofen, an Anti-inflammatory analgesic bulk drug, Perfume industry.

Isobutylene (IB)- several applications in Agro based chemicals, food additives, anti-oxidants.


*Kindly click on above image file for read it enlarge.


Investment Rationale

Ø Growth in Chemical Industry:The global chemical industry historically concentrated in three regions (North America, Western Europe and Japan).  But now, Europe's share of the global production of chemical products declined from 31% to around 27%, while Asia's rose from 13% to 23%.
Ø Current size of approximately $108 billion and the Indian chemical industry is of 3%of the global chemical industry and it is estimating $290 billion till 2017E.(Source: Indiamart news, January, 2013)

Ø Wide business area & Product Range:Products of Company include Isobutyl Benzene (IBB), 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane Sulphonic acid (ATBS), Isobutylene (IB), N-Tertiary Butyl Acrylamide (TBA), N-Tertiary Octyl Acrylamide (TOA) and Di Acetone Acrylamide (DAAM).
Ø Company is the world's largest manufacturer of Isobutylbenzene (IBB, market share 60% and 2-Acrylamido 2-methylpropanesulfonic Acid (ATBS, market share 40%). ATBS contributed 41%, IBB contributed 43% and IB contributed 10% to the revenue of company in FY13.
Ø Only two competitors for the product ATBS, one in US and one in Japan and no manufacturer in India. For, IBB Company is largest manufacturer in world and only one competitor in India that is IOL Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
Ø Company started manufacturing TBA-similar to ATBS product and already capture 50% of global market share.
Ø Company has established plant for product DAAM but still manufacturing is not started. Company doing business development activity for DAAM so that can be start manufacturing it.
Ø Company generated 69% of its revenue from exports in FY13.

Ø Clients: Company has big MNCs as clients, some of are Dow Chemicals, Akzo Nobel, Asian Paints, BASF, NALCO, SNF, Perrigo, Clariant, Chemtall and ShasunChemicals etc. 30+ customers retained by the Company in the last five years and in FY13 company earned 80% of revenue from clients which are stable and relationship with them of 5 years or more.

Ø Threat to entry: Technology which is using by the company is not easily available or easily replicable. Company has done technical partnerships with global players- Institute Francaisdu Petrole (France), Saipem (Italy) and National player- National Chemical Laboratories (India).

Ø Company has achieved a high purity standard in ATBS product, a purity tolerance of 0.5% as against a global tolerance level of 3%. IBB product achieved purity standard of 99.7% which is highest in world. Same with other products- IB achieved 99.85% purity and in HP-MTBE product achieved 99.95% purity which are the highest in the world.

Ø Integration: company has implemented integrated model in which products basket has been structured as inter-consumption. So that products either consumed within company for manufacturing products or marketed to customers.

Ø Strong Performance:From 16 years, company has generated positive cash flow from operating activities. Company has recorded CAGR Net Sales and Net Profit of 32.06% and 76.81% respectively in last 10 years. Average 5 years ROE (%) of company is 40.70%.

Risks
  •          Company have wide product portfolio which gives a strong healthy position but if slowdown in Paint, Oil recovery, water treatment & personal care products then it affect adversely to the profitability of the company.
  •  European weak growth is affecting demand for ATBS so it shrinking profit margin of company.
Outlook

  •     Company is largest manufacturer in ATBS, IBB products and seeing 25%-30% growth in both this products, also company doing capex for expansion purpose and estimating Rs.1000 crore revenue after completion of projects. As per expectation, projects will be complete till FY15-FY16, and also company has 2-3 products in pipeline. 
  •      Currently company trading at TTM PE of 14.27x and TTM EPS of Rs.14.02, and it’s expected that TTM PE of 17.35x and TTM EPS of Rs.15 so that upside in this stock can be Rs.260-Rs.300 so accumulate till Rs.170 for the horizon of 12-15 months.



Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Vinati Organic Ltd.(BSE: 524200)

BUY Vinati Organic Ltd.(BSE: 524200) at every decline till 160 with target of 300, Horizon of 12-18 months.