Pages

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

CLARIS LIFESCIENCES LTD.


Claris Lifesciences Ltd. is in process of buy back of 15% of the total number of Equity shares which held by the investors to the buyback price of Rs.250. This process will complete on 22th may, 2014. I am expecting effect in price and recommending to “BUY” Claris Lifesciences Ltd. With target of 190-200. 

Sunday, May 18, 2014

BAJAJ CORP LTD.

BAJAJ CORP LTD.

Bajaj Corp incorporated on 25th April, 2006 but its products have been in existence since 1953 and were sold by different Bajaj group companies. The company is in manufacturing of hair-oils and its key products are Bajaj Almond Drops, a premium brand that is currently the market leader in the light hair oil segment.

The company manufactures its products at company-operated facilities in Parwanoo, Dehradun and Paonta Sahib.

Industry Overview


Company Overview
Products of Company


Source: Company’s investors’ presentation

Investment Rationale
Ø Increasing in rural wages: Wages in rural India have grown at fastest during 2008-13 at the annual rate of 8%.  Increase in rural income spending of them increasing. Also urbanization of rural area helps to increase sales of FMCG companies.   
Source: CII rural report      
Ø Product Range: Company has major hair oil products in its products portfolio and recently company diversified it to face cream segment by acquisition of Nomarks brand.
Ø Increase market share in Bajaj Almond Drop, which is premium brand of the company. For increasing market share, company never have to sacrifices its pricing power. Nomarks brand also start contributing to revenue of the company, and in FY14 Nomarks has contributed 2.4% to the company revenue. 




Source: Company’s investors’ presentation
Ø Strong Performance: From 5 years, company has generated positive cash flow from operating activities. Company has recorded CAGR Net Sales and Net Profit of 19.94% and 28.74% respectively in last 5 years. Average 5 years ROE (%) of company is 98.05%. Cash Conversion Cycle of Bajaj Corp is -6.97 days in FY13 which is low compare to Cash Conversion Cycle of Marico and Dabur which is 38.91 days and 35.81 days respectively.
Ø Total debt/Equity was 0 in FY13 and Interest coverage 2544.18x in FY13. Company has taken nominal debt in FY14 for acquiring Nomarks brand.

Risks
Ø Strong Competition: Company facing competition with Marico in Hair oil segment. Parachute of Marico is leader in coconut hair oil, company also facing competition with Dabur amla of Dabur India Ltd. Though strong competition in hair oil segment, Bajaj Corp positioning leader market share in Light Hair Oil segment.

Outlook
Ø Bajaj Corp Ltd. has leading market share in Almond drop hair oil and also leading market share in Light hair oil segment. Company has included Nomarks brand in product portfolio which contributing value to company’s revenue. After acquiring Nomarks brand company’s products portfolio not only remain limited to hair oil segments.

Ø Currently company trading at TTM PE of 21.00x and TTM EPS of Rs.10.10, and it’s expected that TTM PE of 22.40x and TTM EPS of Rs.10.78-11 so that upside in this stock can be Rs.240-250 so accumulate “Bajaj Corp Ltd.” for the horizon of 15-18 months.




Monday, April 21, 2014

WONDERLA HOLIDAYS IPO: SUBSCRIBE



The company has an established presence in South, which will be expanded further in the south region. Company planning to enter Chennai after Hyderabad. Besides this its has many advantages like near to debt-free company, strong and experienced management, strong positioned for amusement parks, robust financial performance, in-house manufacturing facility, etc. At the price band of Rs.115-125, the company is quoted at 14.38x and 15.63x on its FY13 EPS of Rs.8.00.


I, Jimit R. Zaveri recommend investors to “SUBSCRIBE” the Wonderla Holidays Ltd IPO considering it’s strong and experienced management, strong positioned for amusement parks, robust financial performance, in-house manufacturing facility at Wonderla Kochi and long term gorwth opportunity in the amusement parks industries on the back of spending for leisure activities and for amusement parks by people in India.

Wonderla Holidays IPO: SUBSCRIBE



WonderLa’s FY13 EPS is about Rs. 8 and at Rs. 125, the PE of 15.63x which is looking attractive at issue price band. One can apply in the issue based on strong fundamental such as Operational experience in the amusement park industry, In-house manufacturing facility at Wonderla Kochi, High profit margins, High safety and hygiene standards, Experienced promoters, management and qualified staff, Entry Barriers and Constantly innovate new attractions at our amusement parks.
The company’s Promoter, Kochouseph Chittilappilly in the year 1996 incorporated V-Guard Industries. Also key management personnel information George Joseph (Chairman, Non-Executive Director (Independent)) serving as director at Muthoot Finance Limited, Ramachandran Panjan Moothedath (Non-Executive Director (Independent)) serving as director at Jyothy Laboratories Limited, Jyothy Consumer Products Limited.
On above strong investment rationale and reasonable valuations, I recommending investors to “SUBSCRIBE” Wonderla Holidays-IPO.   
Detail report will be soon updated.
Visit For Further Details,

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

INFOSYS Q4FY14 Result Update


Infosys Ltd.- Q4FY14 Consolidated- Net Profit Rs.2992 cr in Q4FY14 v/s Rs.2394 cr in Q4FY13., up by 24.98% (Y-o-Y).
Revenue- Rs. 12875cr in Q4FY14 v/s Rs.10454 cr in Q4FY13, up by 23.16% (Y-o-Y).

Net Profit- Rs.2992cr in Q4FY14 v/s Rs.2875cr in Q3FY14, up by 4.07%. (Q-o-Q).
Revenue- Rs.12875cr in Q4FY14 v/s Rs.13026cr in Q3FY14,Down by -1.16% (Q-o-Q).

Infosys declares final dividend of Rs 43/share.
Guidence- FY15 revenue expected to grow by 7%-9% in US$ terms.


INFOSYS Q4FY14

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Herd Behaviour

Herd Behaviour is involves people using the actions of others as a guide to sensible behaviour, instead of independently seeking out high-quality information about the likely outcomes of these actions.

Here, people not take their independent decision, they see, observe others decisions and driven by those decisions. They are not going to evaluate other’s decision before using it as benchmark, just follow other’s decision blindly.

This kind of mentality originally seen in animals as they follow groups and roaming under the group. Same as humans follow their group and follow decisions of group.



















Stock market bubbles, 2008 global crisis, and so on are the examples of herd mentality.



One real Example of Indian Stock Market-

ASTRAZENECA PHARMA INDIA LTD.

BSE Code
506820
NSE Code
ASTRAZEN
Sector
Pharmaceuticals
52 week high/low (Rs.)
1285.00/595.00
No. of shares (Cr)
25
Latest Book Value(Rs)
40.73
P/BV (x)
27.58
Beta
0.24
TTM PE (x)
0.00
TTM EPS (Rs.)
-6.61
Latest Dividend (Rs.)
3.50


03 Mar 2014- AstraZeneca Pharma India Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors (Board) of AstraZeneca Pharma India Limited (Company) have, on March 01, 2014, received by email a scanned copy of the letter from AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals AB (AZP AB) Sweden, promoter of the Company, proposing to make a voluntary delisting offer (the Delisting Proposal) to the public shareholders of the Company in accordance with the Securities and Exchange Board of India.

After above announcement price shoots up like anything, as people believe that delist price can be Rs. 1400+ and that we can experiencing in price.




18 Mar 2014- AstraZeneca Pharma India Ltd has informed BSE that, pursuant to and in accordance with Regulation 8(1)(a) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Delisting of Equity Shares) Regulations, 2009, the delisting proposal received from AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals AB, Sweden, the promoter of the Company, vide their letter dated March 01, 2014, was considered and approved by the Board of the Company at its meeting held on March 15, 2014.

This shows behavior of people that reflecting into the price of the stock and drive price to upward direction. As announcement of delisting happened volume in particular stock also shoots up.



Irrationality

Irrationality is thinking, acting, behaving or talking without inclusion of rationality.

Rationality is the quality or state of being reasonable, based on facts or reason. We evaluate each and every possible steps, cost and benefits from doing something or not doing that activity. Come up with proper reason and select or avoid decision.

So irrationality doesn’t involve rationality. As tradition economic believes that people always behave rationally in every situation. But is it really happen????

Ex:-

You are roaming at forest and lion comes and stand in front of you. At that time what will you do?

Do you think about all options, cost and benefits? What’s the cost of running? What’s the benefit of running?





NO

We just start running as fast as we can.

Thus, at that time our emotion replace on our thinking system and order to run as fast as you can.     
So Irrationality is about the forces that drive our behavior that can be economic forces, social forces.

As when we come to the policies, we just can’t consider only standard economy. We think about society’s care and take a broader picture, broader perspective that just not included only rational. We also have to include what we know about human nature.

We had seen stocks bubbles (Sub-Prime crisis, IT bubble, etc.), people over extending limits of credit cards, taking mortgages, etc. in which where we can see the rationality???

Rationality says that people are strong enough to calculate everything, consider all options then make decision but in real world people are confused, have an emotions, not every time thinking about future, fall in love and so on.    

So that people behave irrationally most of the time which not included under standard economic and pre-assume that people behave rationally.

We rely on contextual information to make all sorts of judgments and decisions. Illusion under us is that we know the answer, we know the right thing to do. But in fact we are wrong. That is just a mental, visual illusion many a time which shape our decision and judgments.

Ex:-
See the below picture…… at top what color is it look like????? 



Your answer is its look like brown.
Now, at the bottom one what color is it look like????



Your answer is its look like orange.
You can’t see both the color as an identical.
Let’s see now….. Cover all side and what both color is it look like???? Is it identical????


Now, our answer is yes both the colors are identical.

It is a visual illusion which drives our decision of those both colors are not an identical.
But is it really????

No, In fact those both colors are identical. Thus, illusion which drives our decision.

Many times we took decisions which are driven by some of the forces and those are not be a rational. We are human and we makes some mistakes repeatedly again and again but benefit of being the human is that we can identifies our mistakes and can take steps for improvement.


See the above video and get more insights.....